Great email Gord. I’m not entirely sure who all I’m writing or what the background is, but allow me to add a quick high-level summary about SPAWs in general:

1. We try to prevent the next accident. Most accidents are human-triggered. People are not suicidal and use avalanches like the Golden Gate Bridge. That suggests a gap between perceived conditions and reality. SPAWs are often issued at times when we think that gap is wide or widening.
2. Often it’s times when obvious clues aren’t that obvious. When you need to be a bit of a detective. Often decision making is easy when danger ratings are HIGH. The mountains are rumbling and you don’t need much training to see the hazard. Decision making is often trickier going into and coming out of a Natural cycle. See the attached graph about decision confidence.
3. There have to be clear, concise, and effective suggestions for what people can do to better manage their risk. We need to be able to help, and the media is a very blunt instrument – nuanced messaging is difficult.

ilya